When each motivated seller list sells: a county-by-county count
Every kind of motivated seller list sells on its own clock, and every county keeps its own. Expired and cancelled listings sold most in their first 3 months in 476 of 492 counties measured, while foreclosure filings sold most after month 3 in 83 of 99.
The findings
Counted from each county’s own records. Method below.
Everyone knows who. Now you know when.
A list tells you who might sell. This count shows when they do, so the mail can arrive while they are selling.
Busiest quarter, list by list
For each list, we found the 3-month window with the most off-market sales after the filing, then counted the counties in each window.
| List | 1 to 3 | 4 to 6 | 7 to 9 | 10 to 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expired or cancelled listing492 counties | 476 | 9 | 4 | 3 |
| Foreclosure filed99 counties | 16 | 31 | 25 | 27 |
| Lien on the property249 counties | 116 | 64 | 37 | 32 |
| Judgment against the owner70 counties | 22 | 16 | 20 | 12 |
Expired listings sell first
An expired or cancelled listing belongs to an owner who just tried to sell.
In 476 of the 492 counties measured, the most off-market sales from that list came in the first 3 months.
Only 16 counties saw their busiest quarter later.
Foreclosure filings sell later
Foreclosure filings run the other way. Their busiest quarter came after month 3 in 83 of the 99 counties measured.
Which later quarter depends on the county: months 4 to 6 in 31, months 7 to 9 in 25, months 10 to 12 in 27.
Liens and judgments are spread out
Liens on the property and judgments against the owner keep no single clock.
Liens lean early, with months 1 to 3 busiest in 116 of 249 counties.
Judgments spread across all four quarters: 22, 16, 20 and 12 of 70 counties.
For these two lists, the county decides more than the list does.
Standing lists against a random house
Some lists are not filings at all. They are standing facts about a house, like an owner who lives elsewhere or taxes left unpaid.
For these, we compared each list with a random house in the same county, over the same 12 months.
| List | Counties | More often | Less often |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sitting vacant | 281 | 276 | 5 |
| Behind on taxes 2 to 4 years | 275 | 265 | 10 |
| Behind on taxes 5 or more years | 163 | 158 | 5 |
| High equity, living elsewhere | 543 | 346 | 197 |
| Owns it free and clear | 562 | 298 | 264 |
| Owner 65 or older, living elsewhere | 384 | 41 | 343 |
Vacant houses and owners behind on taxes sold more often than a random house in nearly every county measured.
Owners 65 or older living elsewhere went the other way: less often than a random house in 343 of 384 counties, over 12 months.
High equity and free-and-clear ownership were mixed: above a random house in some counties, below it in many others.
One county: Cook County, Illinois
Cook County shows both clocks in one place. Here are the off-market sales from two lists, 3 months at a time.
| Months after the filing | Expired listings (7,464) | Foreclosure filings (2,814) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 to 3 | 964 | 24 |
| 4 to 6 | 268 | 41 |
| 7 to 9 | 119 | 74 |
| 10 to 12 | 97 | 155 |
| First 12 months | 1,448 | 294 |
Expired listings sold early: 964 of their 1,448 first-year sales came in the first 3 months.
Foreclosure filings built slowly: 24 sales in months 1 to 3, then 41, 74 and 155. That is 270 of 294 after month 3.
Within 12 months, 19 of every 100 expired listings here sold off-market, against about 1 of every 100 houses in the county.
For foreclosure filings it was 10 of every 100, within the same 12 months.
What it means for your people’s mail
Mail each list while its owners are selling. Fewer letters go to owners whose window has closed, or hasn’t opened yet.
In most counties measured, that means expired listings early and hard, and foreclosure filings longer and later.
Everything else in this count changes from county to county, so read your own county before setting a schedule.
Method
For filings from October 2024 through March 2025, we counted every off-market, arm’s-length sale recorded in the county afterward, in 3-month windows.
563 counties have enough sales on record for a full read.
A list is shown in a county only when there are enough of them to measure honestly.
Probate and divorce filings are too few in most counties to publish.
Everything here was counted from the county’s own records, in July 2026.
- Off-market, arm’s-length
- Sold without an active listing, between a buyer and seller who were not related.
- Busiest quarter
- The 3-month window after the filing with the most of those sales.
- Random house
- Every house in the same county, and how many of them sold off-market over the same 12 months.
Questions
When do expired listings sell?
Early. In 476 of the 492 counties measured, the most off-market sales of expired or cancelled listings came in the first 3 months.
When do foreclosure filings sell?
Later, in most counties. Their busiest quarter came after month 3 in 83 of the 99 counties measured.
Do owners over 65 who live elsewhere sell more often?
Usually not. Over 12 months they sold less often than a random house in the same county in 343 of 384 counties.
Why aren’t probate and divorce filings shown?
There are too few of them in most counties to publish honestly.
Can I see my own county?
The people a FirstPulse partner brings read their own county before they start. Cook County, Illinois is worked through above as an example.
How to cite this
FirstPulse, “When each motivated seller list sells: a county-by-county count,” firstpulse.ai/research/when-each-list-sells, updated October 14, 2026.
Related: how a coach gives students done-for-you marketing, and white label or done for you.
Your people, on their county’s clock
On FirstPulse, a partner’s people read their own county first, so their mail follows the clock their county keeps.