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You mailed a list and it didn’t work.
It probably wasn’t the list.

3,143 counties · real records · no signup

One property · twelve weeks Running
4412 N 62ND ST
Douglas County, NE
WAITING
WK 0WK 4WK 8WK 12
    Cadence simplified for illustration · the PropStream marker is our measured national median
    2020Founded
    $83,062,429Mail purchased
    781Investors have run on it
    3,143Counties tracked weekly

    01 — Timing

    Every kind of trouble has its own window.

    A failed listing is hottest in the first weeks. Tax debt is the opposite — the young debt sells, the old debt sits. Same county, same year, different clocks. Mail them all on one schedule and most of the postage lands after the moment passed.

    WHEN EACH ONE ACTUALLY SELLSShare of a year’s sales, by three-month windowListing expired or cancelled56% in months 0–30–33–66–99–12Foreclosure filed34% in months 0–30–33–66–99–12Lien filed against the property38% in months 0–30–33–66–99–12Harris County, TX. Each bar is one signal’s own year of sales, splitinto three-month windows. Same county, same year — different clocks.
    THE SAME LIST, AGEDOlder tax debt is not hotter. It is colder.Behind 2 to 4 years2.02×61,543 ownersBehind 5+ years1.53×24,899 ownersHarris County, TX. Times more likely to sell off-market than arandom house in the same county. Mail the young debt, not the old.

    02 — Getting there first

    You can’t just mail faster. You’re buying it after PropStream.

    The filing is public the day the county posts it. We read it off the county’s own website that week. PropStream and the rest aggregate it and sell it back — and by then the window has already been open for days.

    THE SAME PUBLIC FILING, TWO ROUTESFirstPulseDAY 0 — WE HAVE IToff the county’s own websitePropStreamAGGREGATED, THEN RESOLDDAY 12 — NOW THEY HAVE ITand so does everyone who bought the fileMEDIAN 12 DAYSMeasured in 1,654 counties; the slowest ran 157 days behind.Counties with no measurable lag are excluded, not estimated.
    NEVER SAME-DAYDays behind, across 1,654 counties3571–76908–1458315–30631–601860+DAYS BEHINDZero counties came back same-day. fcl-lag-tracker.

    03 — Worth the stamp

    Right moment, wrong person, still a wasted stamp.

    Timing only counts if the owner would ever sell to an investor at all. We score every owner against what actually sold off-market in that market — against your buy box, your profit per deal and today’s mail cost — and mail only while the window is open.

    WORTH A STAMP, OR NOTTimes more likely to sell than a random house1×Foreclosure filed10.3×Listing expired7.7×Lien on the property3.5×Sitting vacant2.0×Behind on taxes 2–4y1.9×Behind on taxes 5y+1.7×Judgment on the owner1.2×High equity, absentee1.0×Owns it free and clear0.9×Owner 65+, absentee0.6×Off-market sales only, 2,463 counties. The bottom three are the filters theindustry sells hardest. Divorce and probate withheld — too thin to measure.

    04 — The budget

    Sized to what actually returns the most, not a random number.

    Mail too few and nothing works. Mail too many and you buy more deals than your margin can carry. There is a range in every county where the money comes back, and it is set by who is actually buying there.

    THE RANGE THAT PAYSSpend too little and nothing works. Spend toomuch and you pay to mail people who won’t sell.MINMAXprofit fallsPROFITMONTHLY MAIL BUDGETModelled, not a forecast. Tier response measured across 470 counties.Defaults: 0.5% response, 5% close, $0.65/piece, $12,000 profit per deal.
    A DIFFERENT NUMBER IN EVERY MARKETSet by who is actually buying thereJackson County, MO$2,100/moInvestors buy steadily, homes are cheap enough to compete on.Los Angeles County, CA$3,300/moSame signals, pricier homes — more mail to find one seller.San Francisco County, CANOT YETOwners have retail options. We would tell you not to mail it.Modelled minimum, not a forecast. Source: sweet-spot-calculator/MODEL.md.

    Three things have to be true at once. Right person, right moment, and you have to be there first.

    That is not a file you can buy. It is an operation somebody runs every week, forever. We run it, and you work the leads.

    05 — The receipt

    You can see who sold — and how many of them you mailed.

    SOLD IN YOUR COUNTY THIS MONTHEXAMPLE VIEW
    PropertySold toSignal we flaggedOn your list
    7719 BLONDO STLLC — investorForeclosure filedYES
    2204 N 45TH AVELLC — investorListing expiredYES
    1130 PARK AVEIndividualBehind on taxesYES
    6002 MAPLE STLLC — investorSitting vacantYES
    3418 DODGE STIndividual—NO
    EVERY ROW TRACES TO A RECORDED DEED · TRACKED NUMBER ON EVERY MAIL PIECE

    You are not taking anybody’s word for it. You are reading the deeds, and counting how many of those sellers were already on your list.

    06 — Next

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